Stephen Miran confirms he was the 'bottom dot', insists immigration policy is deflationary

Newly minted Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Stephen Miran, in a stiff departure from standard Fed rhetoric policy, revealed exactly where his opinion landed in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Miran voted for effectively double the amount of basis-point interest rate reductions that the rest of the Fed policymakers negotiated at the latest rate call meeting, a bizarre way to effectively scrub his own vote from the weightings.

Interest rates are set at the majority quarter-point level chosen by Fed voters from one meeting to the next, rather than a range of responses recorded in the SEP.

Miran also pushed back on the suggestion that he exists on the Fed purely to represent the central planning wishes of President Donald Trump, before asserting across the board that Trump's current policy approach is actually deflationary in nature, and will bolster economic growth, hiring, and tamp down inflation by removing workers from the population and constraining global supply lines, one of the most unique approaches to economic policy interpretation on the Fed Board.

Miran also noted his belief that the Fed should focus less on its mandate to target long-term rate setting, which would represent a significant departure from his own stated intention to bring the Fed's focus back to its congressionally mandated policy targets.

Key highlights

I don't see any material inflation from tariffs.
Border policies in recent years have been a significant driver of inflation.
Removal of migrants will have disinflationary impact.
I was the bottom "dot".
Will give full accounting of dissent in Monday speech.
I was the only supportfor 50 bps cut.
I was sworn in about an hour before FOMC meeting.
I hope I'll be able to persuade colleagues.
Silly to say I'm just doing the bidding of the White House.
If President told me I'd stay beyond January I'd resign from White House immediately.
I owe the world an accounting for why views are so different from colleagues.
We should be not too far from neutral rate now.
Economy could use funds rate close to neutral.
Disinflation is coming from border policies.
The longer you stay restrictive, the greater the risks to labor market.
I think growth will be better in H2.
Implications for monetary policy are not very big.
Focus on moderate long-term rates mandate is silly, I literally read the FRA.
I am not reinterpreting the mandate of the Fed.
I did not talk to Trump about my vote.
I will do independent analysis.
That's all I will do.
Weak or strong US Dollar is not in Fed's remit, it's Treasury Secretary and President's.
Government's cost of debt is not one of Fed's mandates.
Yield curve hasn't steepened much.
I wouldn't expect to be able to convince anyone in such a short period.
I'll make up my own mind about policy.
There will be a lot more rigor and context around my arguments soon.
Size of the Fed's balance sheet will be a function of regulatory regime that's chosen.
US is the more elastic, flexible compared to trade partners.
There will always be relative price changes, but it's a different question if it's macroeconomically significant.