SPX: Market has a bad brea(d)th

Alex Spiroglou, CFTe, DipTA (ATAA)Independent Analyst

TOP PANEL: SPX & Volatility Stops

BOTTOM PANEL: % of SPX stocks > 20 MA , NYSE A/D line

Section 1: The market has bad brea(d)th

When it comes to the market’s foundation, things aren’t looking as strong as they seem.

The middle panel of the chart highlights the cumulative NYSE A/D line,

which tracks the net number of advancing vs. declining stocks on the NYSE.

Right now, it’s flashing a warning: despite the index hitting new highs,

the A/D line isn’t confirming this move (highlighted in red).

In the third panel, the percentage of SPX stocks trading above their 20-day EMA

(short term breadth) is also slightly concerning.

It recently hit overbought levels (>70) but is now declining,

another warning for the market’s strength.

Section 2: About the Indicators

NYSE A/D Line: This measures market breadth by comparing advancing stocks to declining stocks. A rising line confirms broad participation, while a divergence signals fewer stocks driving the rally.
% of SPX Stocks > 20 EMA: This indicator shows the percentage of SPX stocks trading above their 20-day exponential moving average. Readings above 70% suggest overbought conditions, while a decline signals weakening momentum.

Author

Alex Spiroglou, CFTe, DipTA (ATAA)

Independent Analyst

Alex Spiroglou is a quasi-systematic, cross-asset proprietary futures trader. His involvement with capital markets began in 1998, having worked for various proprietary trading and investment management firms in the UK and Greece.

More from Alex Spiroglou, CFTe, DipTA (ATAA)

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.