Split demand for Gold in China and India – Commerzbank

On Friday, we reported on the key findings from the World Gold Council's quarterly report on Gold demand in the second quarter and first half of the year. The data is worth taking a second look at. The weakness in jewelry demand was particularly evident in China and India, due to the sharp rise in prices, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Gold demand from private households in China declines

"Jewelry demand in China fell by 28% to 194 tons in the first half of the year, reaching its lowest level in a first half since 2009, apart from 2020, which was affected by the coronavirus pandemic. In India, jewelry demand amounted to just 160 tons in the first half of the year, representing a 20% decline compared to the previous year and the second-lowest level in at least 25 years, an even lower level having been only reached in 2020."

"In value terms, jewelry demand remained unchanged in China, taking into account the sharp rise in prices, and even increased in India. The picture was completely different for demand for bars and coins. At 239 tons, this reached its highest level in 12 years in China in the first half of the year, significantly exceeding jewelry demand."

"In India, demand for bars and coins also rose year-on-year to 93 tons. This cushioned the weakness in jewelry demand, with a result that Gold demand from private households in China declined by only 6% year-on-year in the first half. In India, the decline was a good 12% still. The data impressively demonstrate the dual role of Gold as a price-sensitive consumer good and as a price-driving asset."