Spain: Coalition formation will be difficult – ABN AMRO

Analysts at ABN AMRO, point out that early elections in Spain are going to be held on 28 April, after its parliament voted down the government’s 2019 budget last week.

Key Quotes

“Recent opinion polls suggest that it will be a close race between the Socialist party of Prime Minister Sánchez and the centre-right Partido Popular. The Socialist party has risen in the polls since Mr Sánchez took office in June 2018 and would get around 24% of the votes, versus around 21% for the PP.”

“In case the Socialist party won the elections, it would be difficult to form a majority government, as its most likely partner Unidos Podemos will probably get around 15% of the votes, while the next candidate in line, the centrist Citizens has leaned more to the right side of the political spectrum lately.”

“Alternatively, PP could try and form a right-wing majority coalition with the centrist Citizens and the far-right VOX, although it might be difficult to bridge the ideological differences between VOX and the liberal Citizens. Therefore, as was the case after the previous two elections in Spain, forming a majority coalition could be take time and be difficult or even impossible, implying that another minority government could take office.”

“All said, the polls do indicate that the next government will again be dominated by mainstream parties that are located around the centre of the political spectrum.”