S&P 500 futures Monday playbook: Bulls eye 6,000 on 5,960 reclaim, bears target 5,904 POC break
EPM25 – Monday trading plan update.
Based on the May 17 end-of-week chart with supply and demand projection, Volume Profile & VWAP.
1. Key levels to watch
Resistance zone 5,969–5,977, 50% Fib of today's range just under VAH.
Major resistance 6,000 Round number, May 14–15 swing high.
Short-term pivot 5,960 Yesterday's breakout/remedy level.
Immediate support 5,932 38.2% Fib of today's mini-swing.
Secondary support 5,917 50% Fib of today's swing.
POC / VWAP mid-line (cyan) ~5,904 Volume-Weighted control point.
Lower support 5,870 Rising channel base & Yesterday's low.
VAL (pink) ~5,850 Value-Area-Low on Volume Profile.
2. Market context and bias
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Uptrend intact: Despite the pullback from 5,969–5,977, price has held above both the VWAP mid-line and the channel's mid-pitch.
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Volume profile: POC sits at ~5,904. Holding above reinforces the bullish order flow; a drop below undermines it.
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End-of-week pullback: Failure to sustain above 5,969 suggests profit-taking into the close, setting up a Monday test of POC/VWAP.
3. Bullish scenario (Longs)
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Reclaim & hold 5,960:
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Entry: On a clean push back above 5,960 with a 1–2-bar retest.
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Targets: 5,969 → 5,977 → 6,000.
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Stop: Below 5,940 (just under 38.2% Fib at 5,932).
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POC bounce:
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Entry: Bounce off 5,904 (POC/VWAP mid-line) on increased volume.
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Targets: 5,932 → 5,969.
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Stop: 5,890 (beneath the rising VWAP band).
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4. Bearish scenario (Shorts)
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Failure at 5,969–5,977:
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Entry: Rejection in that zone, fading back below 5,960.
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Targets: 5,932 → 5,904.
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Stop: Above 5,980.
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Break Below POC (5,904):
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Entry: Close below VWAP/POC on a 5-min close.
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Targets: 5,870 → 5,850 (VAL) → 5,814
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Stop: Above 5,920 (just above the POC)
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US mid session May 17
US session end of trades may 17
5. Risk management and notes
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Position sizing: Keep risk ≤ 1% of account on any single trade.
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Volume confirmation: Favour entries when volume spikes at your level.
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Channel context: If price returns to the lower channel rail (5,870) and holds, look for reversal longs into Tuesday.
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Overnight risk: Be aware of any geopolitical headlines after hours that could gap the Sunday/ Monday open.
Author
Denis Joeli Fatiaki
Independent Analyst
Denis Joeli Fatiaki possesses over a decade of extensive experience as a multi-asset trader and Market Strategist.
