Singapore: GDP expected to have contracted further in Q2 – UOB

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan gives his views on the upcoming GDP figures in Singapore for the April-June period.

Key Quotes

“Singapore’s 2Q20 GDP growth is scheduled to be released on 14th July 2020. Accounting for the incoming high-frequency data to-date, we forecast Singapore to clock -10.5% y/y (-34.6% q/q saar) in 2Q20. This will also mark the first technical recession since 1Q09.”

“We believe that the contraction in GDP will trough in 2Q20, given the Circuit Breaker and Phase One restrictions in this period. Thereafter, we expect GDP to contract but at a more moderate pace of -3.7% y/y and -1.2% y/y in the third and fourth quarters respectively.”

“COVID-19-led concerns, coupled with brewing geopolitical and trade tensions in the background, are key drags to Singapore’s growth potential in 2020. Singapore’s output gap to-date remains in negative territory, suggesting that the economy is still growing below potential.”

“We still expect the Singapore economy to contract by an average of 4.0% for the whole of 2020 with downside risks, marking the deepest recession since Singapore’s independence. Our forecast is also at the top-bound of MTI’s revised GDP growth range outlook of between -4.0% and -7.0% for this year.”

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

GBP/USD trims gains, hovers around 1.3520 on US CPI data

GBP/USD adds to the weekly move higher and keeps the trade above the 1.3500 threshold on Wednesday. Cable’s extra recovery follows the modest selling pressure on the Greenback after US CPI readings matched consensus in July.

EUR/USD retargets 1.1550 on US inflation

EUR/USD picks up some traction and flirts with the 1.1550 region on Wednesday. The pair’s modest advance comes as the US Dollar gathers some steam after US CPI data matched estimates last month.

Gold clings to gains above $4,400 post-US CPI

Gold reverses the recent weakness and reclaims the area past the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The precious metal’s recovery picks up pace and exceedes the $4,400 level in the wake of the release of in-line US inflation figures in July and the marginal gains in the US Dollar.

Ripple lags recovery as exchange reserves expand

Ripple is trading within a broadly constrained technical structure, with support at $1.00 and key moving averages limiting its recovery potential. In August, the remittance token declined by approximately 6.5%, extending its total pullback to around 14% from July's $1.18 peak.

911 million shares freed: Why SpaceX rallied into its own supply

The most heavily trailed supply event of the year landed on August 6, and the SpaceX (SPCX) stock went up. Roughly 911.5 million shares held by insiders and early backers became eligible to trade, around 43% more than the entire float sold at the listing.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.