Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING, explains that in what was a remarkably steady year for Singapore’s economic growth, final quarter of GDP growth printed a figure of 1.6% QoQ.
“This year, using a similar quarterly profile to that seen in 2018, would deliver a growth rate for the full year of 2.6%. In reality, we suspect the quarterly growth profile could come in a little softer than that for 2018, though this would still be in line with MAS expectations for GDP to moderate a little from 2018. 2.5% seems a sensible starting point for the forecast, with room for amendment in both directions.”
“Headwinds are of course already evident. The global backdrop is one of slowing G-7 growth, not acceleration, and the outlook for the US, in particular, could see large deviations from current growth rates. China is already slowing and the full ramifications of that are yet to be felt across the region. Brexit and its impact as far away as Asia, if any, is as yet unknown. And the outlook for the rest of Europe murky.”
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