Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies after three-day decline

Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm on Thursday after a strong start to the day, recovering from a three-day losing streak as market sentiment turns cautious once again. Investors are flocking back to safe-haven assets following renewed global trade tensions and softer US Treasury yields, both of which have underpinned demand for the precious metals. The decline in yields came after a strong 10-year US Treasury auction on Wednesday, which saw robust investor demand and pushed yields lower.

At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $36.63 during early American trading hours, easing slightly from the day’s high of $36.85.

The metal found support near the $36.30 region during the Asian session, rebounding firmly as US President Donald Trump intensified his tariff campaign with new threats targeting eight additional countries, including Algeria, Moldova, and the Philippines. The proposed tariffs, ranging from 20% to 50%, are set to take effect on August 1, further escalating global trade uncertainty.

Sentiment was also influenced by the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June Meeting Minutes, released on Wednesday, which showed that most policymakers see rate cuts as likely later this year, while concerns over inflationary risks from tariffs were considered temporary or modest.

From a technical standpoint, Silver continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel that has been in place since early April, but price action has remained largely range-bound between $35.50 and $37.00 over the past four weeks. Bulls have repeatedly failed to break above the psychological $37.00 mark. The $37.30 level, which marks a 13-year high, remains a key upside barrier. The metal remains above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $36.22, maintaining a near-term bias tilted to the upside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 58, showing steady bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator sits in positive territory near 1.76, indicating modest upside pressure. However, momentum has softened slightly compared to the sharp rallies seen in May and June, reflecting broader market indecision.

A sustained break above the $37.00 psychological level could confirm bullish continuation within the broader ascending channel and potentially expose the $38.00–$38.50 area as the next target. On the downside, initial support lies at $36.22 (21-day EMA), followed by the lower end of the recent consolidation zone at $35.50. A daily close below this zone would invalidate the bullish channel and shift the near-term bias in favor of the bears, with next support seen around $34.50.