Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slumps to near $48.00 as traders lock in profits
- Silver price falls to near $48.10 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Silver faces some selling pressure, marking the biggest decline in more than a dozen years, as traders locked in profits.
- The ongoing US government shutdown and Fed rate cut bets might cap the downside for XAG/USD.
Silver price ( XAG/USD) extends the decline to around $48.10 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The white metal remains under pressure after facing its steepest sell-off in years in the previous session as traders locked in profits.
Silver tumbled more than 8% to mark its largest daily drop since 2021, amid concerns that the recent record high in the white metal left it overvalued. Additionally, easing trade tensions between the United States (US) and China lifts the US Dollar (USD) and undermines the USD-denominated commodity price.
US President Donald Trump last week threatened a new 100% tariff on China and suggested he would skip a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to be held in South Korea later this month. Trump softened his stance over the weekend, saying that high tariffs on China are unsustainable, and expressed willingness for smoother relations with China. Trump late Tuesday noted that an upcoming meeting with his Chinese counterpart would yield a “good deal” on trade.
On the other hand, the ongoing US government shutdown, geopolitical risks and the expectation of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts could boost the safe-haven assets like Silver. The US federal government shutdown has entered its fourth week with no clear end in sight, marking the third-longest funding lapse in modern history. The GOP-backed bill failed to pass the Senate for the 11th time on Monday.
Traders are currently pricing in nearly a 99% possibility that the US central bank will cut interest rates again next week, followed by another reduction in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Silver, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
