Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slides to near $32 despite renewed Trump’s tariff fears
- Silver price declines to near $32.00 even though US President Trump has confirmed that the 25% tariff plan on Canada and Mexico is intact.
- The US Dollar steadies as investors digest weak US flash S&P Global Services PMI for February.
- Investors seek fresh developments on peace talks for calling off war in Ukraine.
Silver price (XAG/USD) falls for a straight third trading day and declines to near $32.00 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal weakens even though United States (US) President Donald Trump has confirmed that his plans of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4, which were delayed by a month, are on.
“The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule,” Trump said during a press conference on Monday.
President Trump postponed his tariffs plans after his North American peers agreed to criminal enforcement at borders to restrict the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants. Tariffs by the US on its close peers are expected to heighten political risks and weigh on the global economic outlook. Such a scenario remains favorable for precious metals, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, steadiness in the US Dollar (USD) after a recovery move from its fresh 11-week low has weighed on the Silver price to some extent. The US Dollar rebounds as investors digest weak flash US S&P Global PMI data for February, which was released on Friday. The PMI report showed that the Services PMI, which gauges activities in the services sector, contracted for the first time after expanding for 25 straight months.
Going forward, investors will focus on Russia-US peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, which has entered its fourth year. Geopolitical tensions increase the safe-haven demand of the Silver price.
On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron met Donald Trump to avoid a quick ceasefire deal and discussed military guarantees to Ukraine, Reuters report.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price retraces after failing to extend its upside above the February 14 high of $33.40 on Thursday. The outlook of the white metal remains bullish as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been sloping higher, which trades around $31.40.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the bullish momentum has faded. However, the bullish bias remains intact.
Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will act as key support for the Silver price around $30.00. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the key barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
