Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD reaches 14-year highs above $40.50 amid safe-haven demand
- Silver price marked $40.85, the highest since September 2011, on Tuesday.
- US July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index pointed to sustained inflationary pressures, adding to uncertainty around potential Fed rate cuts.
- Silver receives support from safe-haven demand, driven by lingering uncertainty over the legality of Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Cook.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades near $40.85 per troy ounce, the highest since September 2011, which was marked during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The precious metals like Silver attract buyers amid increased safe-haven demand, driven by US Federal Reserve (Fed) independence concerns, uncertainty surrounding Fed policy outlook, and US President Donald Trump's tariffs.
United States (US) July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index signaled persistent inflationary pressures and heightened uncertainty over potential Fed rate cuts. However, traders are now pricing in more than 89% of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from an 84% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Market participants are also awaiting upcoming employment figures due this week that could shape the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision in September. Key reports include ADP Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, and Nonfarm Payrolls for August.
Safe-haven demand for Silver is further supported by ongoing concerns about the US central bank’s independence. Uncertainty persists over the legality of Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, after a court hearing on Friday concluded without a decision on whether to temporarily halt the move.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged that the Federal Reserve should be politically independent, but offered little clarity on his vague claim that the Fed has "made a lot of mistakes", outside of not obeying President Trump's demands for lower interest rates.
Meanwhile, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld a ruling that the sweeping tariffs the US President Donald Trump unilaterally imposed on most other countries were illegal. Trump blasted the decision as “highly partisan” and vowed to appeal to the US Supreme Court.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
