Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to confluence of 50/100-DMAs ahead of $28.00
- Silver's uptrend tested as it nears key support at 50 and 100-DMAs between $29.17 and $29.13.
- RSI neutral, indicating potential for more downside if direction doesn't solidify.
- Below $29.00, silver may target the August 12 high of $28.03, with support at the August 14 low of $27.18.
- Upside move reclaiming $30.00 could push towards June 21 high at $30.84 and July 11 peak at $31.75.
Silver prices tumbled toward a critical confluence technical level on Wednesday, after bulls failed to sustain the grey’s metal quote above the $30.00 a troy ounce level. Therefore, the XAG/USD finished yesterday’s session with losses of 2.84%, yet as Thursday’s Asian session begins, the XAG/USD trades at $29.10, virtually unchanged.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver’s uptrend remains in place, but since the XAG/USD rallied from around $26.45 to $30.18, the non-yielding metal has dropped toward the current spot prices, which is also the confluence of the 50 and 100-day moving averages (DMAs) at $29.17-$29.13, respectively.
Momentum indicates that neither buyers nor sellers are in charge, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral.
That said, if XAG/USD drops below $29.00, this could exacerbate a test of the August 12 high turned support at $28.03. Silver could challenge the August 14 swing low of $27.18 on further weakness.
Conversely, if XAG/USD climbs above $30.00, this could exacerbate a challenge of June 21 daily high at $30.84, before testing the latest swing high reached on July 11 at $31.75.
XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
