Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD broke a bullish pennant, but the rally stalled at the 100-DMA

Silver (XAG/USD) is advancing for the second day in the week and is trading above $23.00 for the first time in a month during the New York session. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $23.11, up some 0.60%.

For the second consecutive day, precious metals led by gold and silver climbed as risk appetite improved, coupled with US dollar weakness, as the year-end looms. The Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot and the beginning of a faster bond-taper in the middle of January of 2022 put a lid on any upward movements in the silver, as Fed policymakers now expect at least three rate hikes in coming year. 

The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of its peers, has advanced some 0.12% and is trading at 96.20. In the bond market, the 10-year benchmark note coupon has fallen one and a half basis points to sit at 1.465%, providing a tailwind for XAG/USD, as real rates head nowhere, with 10-year US TIPS are at -1.083%.

Silver broke to the upside of a bullish pennant on the one hour chart during the overnight session, reaching a daily high of around $23.41, and then retreating towards $23.09.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver’s daily chart depicts the non-yielding metal trading with a neutral-bearish bias. The rally in the overnight session was capped by the confluence of the 50 and 100-day moving averages (DMAs) around the $23.33-45 area, and at press time, XAG bulls managed to keep the price above the December 27 daily high, at $23.09.

To the upside, XAG/USD’s first line of resistance is seen at the 100-DMA at $23.33, immediately followed by the 50-DMA at $23.43. A breach of that area would expose the November 25 daily high at $23.70.

On the other hand, the first level of support is likely to be the December 27 daily high at $23.09. A break below that would expose $23.00, followed by the December 24 cycle low at $22.59.