- Silver struggles to capitalize on Friday’s goodish bounce from the vicinity of the mid-$22.00s.
- Neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before placing directional bets.
- A sustained strength beyond the 200-day SMA will shift the bias in favour of bullish traders.
Silver (XAG/USD) meets with a fresh supply on the first day of a new week and erodes a major part of Friday's recovery gains from over a one-week low. The white metal maintains its offered tone around the $22.85-$22.80 zone through the first half of the European session and seems vulnerable to prolonging its recent downfall witnessed over the past week or so.
From a technical perspective, the recent failure to find acceptance above the very important and significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent decline validates the near-term negative outlook for the XAG/USD. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are yet to confirm a bearish bias, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move.
In the meantime, Friday's swing low, around mid-$22.00s, might continue to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $22.30 horizontal support. The next relevant support is pegged near the $21.90-$21.85 zone, or the two-month low touched in January. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and has the potential to drag the XAG/USD towards testing the $21.40-$21.35 support area.
On the flip side, the $23.00 round figure now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the 200-day SMA, currently near the $23.30 zone. This is followed by the monthly peak, around mid-$23.00. A sustained strength beyond the latter will negate the negative outlook and allow the XAG/USD to aim back to reclaim the $24.00 round figure.
The momentum could extend further towards the $24.50-$24.60 region, above which the white metal could target the $25.00 psychological mark.
Silver daily chart
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