Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD bulls have the upper hand near 200-period SMA on 4-hour chart

Silver prolongs its recent recovery move from the lowest level since June 2020 touched earlier this month and gains traction for the fourth successive day on Monday. This also marks the sixth day of a positive move in the previous seven and lifts the white metal to over a two-week high, around the $19.30 area during the first half of the European session.

Last week's sustained breakout through the top end of a nearly one-month-old descending channel and a subsequent strength beyond the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bulls. Furthermore, technical indicators on the daily chart have just started moving in the positive territory and remain supportive of the strong follow-through move up.

That said, RSI (14) on hourly charts is already flashing overbought conditions and might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the XAG/USD. Hence, it is prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further appreciating move. The bias, meanwhile, still seems tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders.

If silver can break above the 200-4hr SMA at $20.30 it is likely to meet tough resistence at the trendline drawn from April 2022 highs at $19.50-$19.60. A break above that, however, would be key to solidifying a new more bullish trend, allowing XAG/USD to accelerate the momentum towards reclaiming the $20.00 psychological mark and then the 50-day SMA at around $20.50. 

On the flip side, the $19.00 round figure now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further pullback might be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, around the $18.65-$18.60 region. This is followed by support near the $18.30 area. A convincing break below the latter will negate the near-term positive bias.

Silver 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch