Silver Price Analysis: Skate the XAG/USD bid on US Nonfarm Payrolls – TDS

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Commodity Strategists at TD Securities (TDS) explained their strategy for trading Silver price heading into Friday’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Key quotes

"Buying exhaustion in precious metals has morphed into selling activity at a faster pace than initially anticipated, sending active Silver prices towards our target nearly -5% lower.

In fact, our advanced positioning analytics now already suggest that algorithmic trend followers have liquidated the bulk of their net long position, contributing to the downside in prices over the last sessions.

However, the scope for subsequent CTA selling activity is still elevated, with a break in active silver prices below the $23.90/oz range likely to spark notable short acquisitions.

We expect an upside surprise in this week's non-farm payrolls data that could roil rates market pricing for the Fed to begin its cutting cycle as soon as March, extending the slide lower in precious metals with discretionary traders now net long.

While we expect macro headwinds to weigh on precious metals short positions in the medium term, we skate our bid to extend our target towards $22.50/oz and slide our stop towards $25.35/oz (50% retracement) to protect profits on this tactical position. Given that gold prices had led the move higher in precious metals, our trading target at $1950/oz remains in play."

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold adds to Thursday's gains as softer bond yields drag USD to over one-week low

Gold attracts buyers for the second straight day on Friday amid a broadly weaker US Dollar, though it remains confined in a two-week-old range. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to a nearly two-week low as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Annual IMF and World Bank Group Meetings did little to alter the rate outlook.

Busy week for Ripple’s RLUSD: What changes for stablecoin holders?

Ripple’s RLUSD is gaining ground across institutional finance, with a major bank launching custody services, a new wallet integration making it easier for developers to build payments and agentic experiences on the network, and a brokerage platform planning to use the stablecoin for settlement.

Hot inflation, falling yields: A new test for global markets

Global markets are confronting a difficult combination: renewed inflation pressure, expensive capital and growing scrutiny of the investment supporting the AI boom. The most revealing development this week was the demand for government bonds even as US inflation accelerated. My assessment is that investors should treat this as a test of financing resilience.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.