Shopify (SHOP) hits target — 85% profit secured, bulls in control

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) continues to lead the e-commerce sector, with analysts maintaining a broadly optimistic outlook for 2025. The Ottawa-based company posted impressive financials, including a 31% year-over-year revenue increase and sustained double-digit free cash flow margins. After exiting the logistics business, Shopify refocused on its core software offerings—streamlining operations and boosting profitability. As a result, millions of merchants now rely on its platform for online sales, payments, marketing, and point-of-sale tools.

Shopify posted impressive results for the second quarter of 2025. To start, revenue rose 31% year-over-year, reaching $2.68 billion and beating forecasts by over $130 million. Next, net income jumped to $906 million, while earnings per share hit $0.35—well above expectations. In addition, gross merchandise volume climbed 29%, totaling $87.8 billion. As a result, free cash flow grew to $422 million, supported by a solid 16% margin. Thanks to strong demand for AI-powered tools and global merchant expansion, Shopify raised its Q3 outlook. Looking ahead, the company expects revenue growth in the mid-to-high twenties and continued margin strength. In turn, the stock surged more than 20%, showing strong investor confidence and confirming Shopify’s leadership in e-commerce

Meanwhile, analysts express cautious confidence. According to MarketBeat, 43 Wall Street analysts rate SHOP a “Moderate Buy,” with 24 buy ratings, 18 hold, and only 1 sell. The average price target stands at $148.51, reflecting Shopify’s consistent growth and expanding global merchant base. Although some warn of rising competition and macroeconomic uncertainty, most agree that Shopify’s innovation and operational discipline support long-term success.

Elliott Wave outlook: SHOP daily chart April 2025

In April, we marked wave III’s completion at 129.38, followed by wave IV bottoming at 69.84. From this inflection point, our forecast anticipated a bullish continuation toward the 143.49–154.61 zone. This target aimed to complete wave V of (I), signaling potential resistance. However, price action broke through, challenging the assumption of wave (II) and confirming bullish control.

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Elliott Wave outlook: SHOP daily chart August 2025

In this Elliott Wave update, Shopify continues its rally, forming a clear impulsive structure. The earnings gap met resistance near 154.61, which we’ve labeled wave 3 of ((3)). Therefore, we expect further upside through waves 4s and 5s, until complete wave ((5)) of V. This move would finalize wave V of (I), setting the stage for a new correction. Ideally, wave V of (I) should end above 166.30. We do not like selling, just look for buying opportunities.