Forex Today: Safe-havens strongly bid as US bombs Syria, UK IP, NFP in focus

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Volatility was back in Asia along with risk-aversion after big news of the US attacking the Syrian airfield broke on the wires. Yen emerged the strongest across the fx space, while gold rallied almost 1% to the highest levels since Feb 26 amid increased flight to safety, as markets dumped risky assets in search for safety bets.

As a result, risk currencies such as the Antipodeans and GBP came under heavy selling pressure, with the Aussie losing the most. Also, the Asian equities and treasury yields felt the heat of the US military strike on Syria’s target. The US launched 60 missiles in response to Syria’s chemical attack, with the US President Trump noting that the strike on Syria was in the 'vital national security interest' of the US.

Amidst the news of the US attack, the focus seen on the Trump-Xi meeting got somewhat diverted, as markets witnessed a sudden turnaround in risk sentiment. Risk-on prevailed in the overnight trades amid a recovery in Wall Street stocks and treasury yields, as markets remained expectant of a positive outcome from the much-awaited Trump-Xi meeting.

According to Fox news report released earlier on the day, President Trump at a dinner with President Xi said, “I can see that long-term, we are going to have a very, very great relationship and I look very much forward to it”.

Looking ahead, we have an action-packed economic calendar for today, kicking-off with the German industrial production and trade data, followed by a slew of releases from the UK docket, including the Halifax HPI, industrial production and BOE Carney’s speech.

Meanwhile, the employment reports from both the North American economies are expected to hog the limelight, particularly the US payrolls data. Besides, the Canadian Ivey PMI and FOMC member Dudley’s speech will be also closely eyed.

Main Headlines in Asia:

Trump sees great relationship with China in the long-run

Japan’s Aso - US-Japan dialogue will also include Energy & Infrastructure

US military strikes Syrian airfield

US launches dozens of cruise missiles at airbase in Syria

US President Trump: Strike on Syria in the 'vital national security interest' of the US

Syrian Military Source: US missile strike on Syrian air base "led to losses" - State TV

Pentagon: US informed Russia ahead of missile strike on Syria's Shayrat airfield

US Sec of State Tillerson: "We sought no approval from Moscow”

Key Focus Ahead:

US Non-Farm Payroll data

High expectations of a good nonfarm payrolls report - Nomura

How are you going to play nonfarms payrolls? - Nomura

5 Things to watch in the March NFP report - WSJ

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, Apr 06
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims	234K	250K	259K Revised from 258K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims	2.028M	2.040M	2.052M
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$399B
13:30	USD FOMC Member Williams speech
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change	2B	10B	-43B
n/a	USD Trump-Xi Jinping meeting
23:30	AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index	51.2		83.1
23:50	JPY JP Foreign Reserves	$1,230.3B		$1,232.3B
Friday, Apr 07
24h	USD Trump-Xi Jinping meeting
00:00	JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)	0.4%	0.5%	0.3% Revised from 0.5%
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index		104.7	104.9
05:00	JPY Coincident Index			115.1
05:45	CHF Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM)		3.3%	3.3%
06:00	EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)			0%
06:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)		-0.2%	2.8%
06:00	EUR Imports (MoM)		-0.5%	3.0%
06:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a.			€12.8B
06:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.		€18.4B	€18.5B
06:00	EUR Exports (MoM)		-0.5%	2.7%
06:00	ZAR Net $Gold & Forex Reserve			$41.506B
06:00	ZAR Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve			$46.722B
06:00	EUR Trade Balance			€-0.455B
06:00	NOK Manufacturing Output			0.2%
06:30	EUR Manufacturing Output (MoM)			-2.6%
06:45	EUR Imports, EUR			€45.1B
06:45	EUR Trade Balance EUR		€-4.9B	€-7.9B
06:45	EUR Exports, EUR			€37.2B
06:45	EUR Industrial Output (MoM)		0.5%	-0.3%
06:45	EUR Current Account			€-7B
06:45	EUR Budget			€-5.4B
07:00	TRY Industrial Production (YoY)			2.6%
07:00	DKK Industrial Production (MoM)			-5.3%
07:00	EUR Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY)		3.1%	2.5%
07:00	EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY)			7.4%
07:00	EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM)			0.3%
07:00	RON Gross Domestic Product			4.7%
07:00	EUR Foreign Trade Balance			€152M
07:00	CHF Foreign Currency Reserves			644B
07:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM)		0.3%	0.1%
07:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)		3.9%	5.1%
08:00	EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)			1.4%
08:00	EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY)			-0.1%
08:00	CZK FX Reserves			€105.39B
08:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)		3.9%	2.7%
08:30	GBP Industrial Production (MoM)		0.2%	-0.4%
08:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)		0.3%	-0.9%
08:30	GBP Industrial Production (YoY)		3.7%	3.2%
08:30	GBP Trade Balance; non-EU			£-2.447B
08:30	GBP Total Trade Balance			£-1.97B
08:30	GBP Goods Trade Balance		£-10.700B	£-10.833B
09:00	EUR Wage Inflation (YoY)			0.4%
09:00	EUR Wage Inflation (MoM)			0.1%
09:00	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
11:30	CLP Trade Balance			$236M
12:00	GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)			0.6%
12:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls		180K	235K
12:30	USD Average Weekly Hours		34.4	34.4
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)			2.8%
12:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate			63%
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)			0.2%
12:30	USD Unemployment Rate		4.7%	4.7%
12:30	CAD Net Change in Employment		5.0K	15.3K
12:30	CAD Participation rate			65.8%
12:30	CAD Unemployment Rate		6.7%	6.6%
13:00	PLN Central Bank FX Reserves			€104.6B
13:00	MXN Core Inflation			0.76%
13:00	MXN Headline Inflation			0.58%
13:00	MXN 12-Month Inflation			4.86%
14:00	USD Wholesale Inventories		0.4%	0.4%
14:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index			55.1
14:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a			55
14:30	TRY Treasury Cash Balance			-20.18B
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			662
19:00	USD Consumer Credit Change			$8.79B
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$137.8K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$160.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			398.1K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-104.1K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-53.2K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€-7.9K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$53.1K
22:00	PEN Interest rate decision
Saturday, Apr 08
n/a	CNY FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)
Sunday, Apr 09
24h	INR Mahavir Jayanti
23:50	JPY Current Account n.s.a.			¥65.5B
23:50	JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis			¥-853.4B
Monday, Apr 10
01:30	AUD Investment Lending for Homes			4.2%
01:30	AUD Home Loans			0.5%
02:00	CNY M2 Money Supply (YoY)			11.1%
02:00	CNY New Loans			1,170B
05:00	JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook			50.6
05:00	JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current			48.6
05:00	JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)			9.1%
06:00	EUR Industrial Output (MoM)			0%
06:00	RON Trade Balance			€-0.602B
06:00	NOK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.5%
06:00	NOK Core Inflation (MoM)			0.5%
06:00	NOK Core Inflation (YoY)			1.6%
06:00	NOK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
06:00	NOK Producer Price Index (YoY)			18.8%
07:00	DKK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1%
07:00	DKK Inflation (HICP) (YoY)			0.9%
07:00	DKK Trade Balance
07:00	DKK Current Account			18.1B
07:00	CZK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
07:00	CZK Unemployment Rate			5.3%
07:00	CZK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.5%
08:00	EUR Industrial Output s.a. (MoM)			-2.3%
08:00	EUR Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY)			-0.5%
08:00	DKK Current Account
08:30	EUR Sentix Investor Confidence			20.7
09:00	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			7.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY)			1.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.3%
10:00	EUR Global Trade Balance			€-3.11B
11:00	INR Trade Deficit Government			$8.9B
12:15	CAD Housing Starts s.a (YoY)			210.2K
n/a	USD Labor Market Conditions Index			1.3
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			0.79%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			0.91%
17:00	USD 3-Year Note Auction			1.63%
21:45	NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.6%
21:45	NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY)			2.6%
Tuesday, Apr 11
01:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Conditions			9
01:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence			7
03:00	KRW Money Supply Growth			6.8%
06:00	RON Industrial Production (MoM)			-0.5%
06:00	RON Consumer Price Index			0.2%
07:00	EUR Trade Balance			€-639.2M
07:00	HUF Industrial Output (YoY)			6.5%
07:00	HUF Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.8%
07:00	HUF Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.9%
07:00	EUR Industrial Output (YoY)			7.6%
07:30	SEK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.7%
07:30	SEK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.8%
08:00	TRY Current Account Balance			$-2.762B
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)			3.2%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)			1.1%
08:30	GBP DCLG House Price Index (YoY)			6.2%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a			0.2%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a			3.7%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a			0%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a			19.1%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a			-0.4%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a			2.4%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.7%
08:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.3%
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Current Situation			77.3
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment			12.8
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment			25.6
10:00	USD NFIB Business Optimism Index			105.3
10:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)			0.9%
10:00	EUR Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)			0.6%
11:00	ZAR Manufacturing Production Index (YoY)			0.8%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			1.3%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-0.7%
13:00	MXN Industrial Output (MoM)			0.1%
13:00	MXN Industrial Output (YoY)			-0.1%
13:00	RUB Foreign Trade			$11.445B
14:00	USD JOLTS Job Openings			5.626M
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.76%
17:00	USD 10-Year Note Auction			2.56%
19:00	ARS Consumer Price Index (MoM)			2.5%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-1.83M
23:00	KRW Unemployment Rate			4%
23:00	GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.4%
23:50	JPY Bank lending (YoY)			2.8%
23:50	JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
23:50	JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY)			1%
23:50	JPY Machinery Orders (YoY)			-8.2%
23:50	JPY Machinery Orders (MoM)			-3.2%
Wednesday, Apr 12
00:30	CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)			7.8%
00:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
00:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.8%
05:00	SGD Retail Sales (YoY)			2%
05:00	SGD Retail Sales (MoM)			-1.5%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.4%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			-0.3%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			3%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			2.1%
08:30	GBP Claimant Count Change			-11.3K
08:30	GBP Claimant Count Rate			2.1%
08:30	GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)			4.7%
08:30	GBP Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)			2.3%
08:30	GBP Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)			2.2%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.41%
n/a	GBP 30-y Bond Auction			1.787%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-1.6%
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)			-2.3%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			7.7%
11:30	INR Manufacturing Output			2.3%
11:30	INR Industrial Output			2.7%
11:30	INR Cumulative Industrial Output			0.6%
12:00	PLN Net Inflation			0.3%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (YoY)			3.1%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (YoY)			4.6%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
13:00	BRL Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.7%
14:00	CAD BOC Rate Statement
14:00	CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision			0.5%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			1.566M
14:30	CAD Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
15:15	CAD BoC Press Conference
17:00	USD 30-Year Bond Auction			3.17%
18:00	USD Monthly Budget Statement			$-192B
22:30	NZD Business NZ PMI			55.2
22:45	NZD Food Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
23:01	GBP RICS Housing Price Balance			24%
23:50	JPY Money Supply M2+CD (YoY)			4.2%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥1,099.8B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥584.5B
Thursday, Apr 13
24h	DKK Maundy Thursday
24h	MXN Maundy Thursday
24h	COP Maundy Thursday
24h	ISK Maundy Thursday
24h	NOK Maundy Thursday
01:00	KRW BoK Interest Rate Decision			1.25%
01:00	AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation			4%
01:30	AUD Financial Stability Review
01:30	AUD Employment Change s.a.			-6.4K
01:30	AUD Fulltime employment			27.1K
01:30	AUD Part-time employment			-33.5K
01:30	AUD Participation Rate			64.6%
01:30	AUD Unemployment Rate s.a.			5.9%
n/a	CNY Imports (YoY)			38.1%
n/a	CNY Trade Balance CNY			-60.4B
n/a	CNY Exports (YoY)			-1.3%
n/a	CNY Trade Balance USD			$-9.15B
n/a	CNY Imports (YoY) CNY			44.7%
n/a	CNY Exports (YoY) CNY			4.2%
04:30	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			3.4%
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
06:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)			0.1%
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
06:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)			1.5%
06:00	EUR Current Account			€0B
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.2%
06:30	INR WPI Inflation			6.55%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)			1.4%
06:45	EUR Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM)			0.1%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM)			0.2%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.4%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (YoY)			1.2%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (MoM)			0.5%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (YoY)			1.9%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (MoM)			0.6%
07:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (YoY)			1.3%
07:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (MoM)			-0.2%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)			1.3%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)			1.8%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
08:00	CZK Current Account (MoM)			29.4B
08:30	GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.5%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.3%
10:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			-0.5%
10:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			0.2%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)			0.3%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)			1.5%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.2%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			234K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			2.028M
12:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)			0.6%
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY)			3.1%
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
13:00	PLN Current Account			€2,457M
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index			96.9
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			2B
21:00	CLP BCCH Interest Rate			3.25%
21:00	KRW Export Price Growth (YoY)			4.9%
21:00	KRW Import Price Growth (YoY)			9.1%
Friday, Apr 14
24h	EUR Good Friday
24h	IDR Good Friday
24h	BRL Good Friday
24h	DKK Good Friday
24h	CLP Good Friday
24h	MXN Good Friday
24h	EUR Good Friday
24h	ZAR Good Friday
n/a	KRW Trade Balance
24h	COP Good friday
24h	GBP Good Friday
24h	EUR Orthodox Good Friday
24h	EUR Good Friday
24h	INR Good Friday
24h	EUR Good Friday
24h	NZD Good Friday
24h	SGD Good Friday
24h	ISK Good Friday
24h	HKD Good friday
24h	ARS Good Friday
24h	EUR Good Friday
24h	EUR Good Friday
24h	EUR Good Friday
24h	CHF Good Friday
24h	CAD Good Friday
24h	AUD Good Friday
24h	SEK Good Friday
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)			2%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			4.8%
04:30	JPY Capacity Utilization			0.1%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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