Analysts at TDS point out that CBR Governor Nabiullina mentioned last week that the options under discussion at today’s rate meeting will be to cut by 25bps or by 50bps.
“We believe the CBR will cut the Key Rate by 50bps to 8.50%, in line with the consensus, but will maintain a moderately dovish bias, which may surprise some in the market. This view represents a more dovish expectation than we previously held, as we increase the total amount of easing we now expect in the remainder of 2017 to 75bps from a prior 50bps. Also today or on Monday August IP will be released. Growth is expected to edge up to 1.5% Y/Y from a prior 1.1%.”
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