Paul Fage, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, expects the CBR to start a shallow easing cycle on Friday, and cut by 25bps.

Key Quotes

“We've held this view since end of April. The consensus is also almost unanimously leaning towards easing.”

“At the last Board meeting, on 26 April, the press statement held out the prospect of imminent rate cuts saying that "if the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia admits the possibility of turning to cutting the key rate in Q2-Q3 2019".”

“Since then, inflation developments have been generally positive. CPI inflation in May was 5.1% y/y, down from 5.2% in April and further supporting the CBR's view that March's reading of 5.3% will be the peak for this year. Core inflation has edged up, to 4.7% in May from 4.6% in April, but is running a fair bit below headline. Since the April meeting USDRUB is almost unchanged, in spite of a fall in global oil prices. Added to all this the global financial environment has taken a distinctly more dovish tone.”

“So we see nothing in the way of the CBR cutting the policy rate by 25bps on Friday. We've held this view since the 26th of April, and the consensus has almost unanimously aligned to our view now.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD extends its gains toward 1.1300 after the dovish Fed decision

EUR/USD has extended its gains after the Fed opened the door to cutting interest rates, stating that uncertainties have increased. Markets are awaiting EU leaders to divvy up top jobs.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD falls after the dovish BOE statement

GBP/USD retreats below 1.2700. after the BOE downgraded Q2 forecasts, sees increasing signs of wage growth leveling off, and notes downside risks have increased. However, they remain on course to tighten policy.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY rebounds from multi-month lows, continues to trade below 108

Fed's dovish shift continues to weigh on the greenback. 10-year US Treasury bond yield plummets to lowest level since November 2016. Wall Street looks to open sharply higher on Thursday.

USD/JPY News

Gold eases from multi-year tops, still well bid near $1380 level

Gold built on the post-FOMC upsurge and rallied to near six-year tops during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit retreated a bit thereafter.

Gold News

FOMC: Prelude to a rate cut?

The Federal Reserve added little new to its policy prescript in Wednesday’s FOMC statement and economic projections and with the anticipation for a July rate cut long priced into market levels the reaction was decidedly uninvolved.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures