RUB: Russian banking stress deepens – Commerzbank

Concerns over financial stress in the Russian banking system, which first emerged in June, continue to grow. Throughout the year, updates from banking officials and the development ministry have periodically highlighted these pressures, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.

RUB seen weakening further into 2026

"The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) took leadership of analysing and tracking this issue in the months following. It added 13 large corporates, including systemic players in the energy sector, to its list of vulnerable companies. The combined debt of these entities had already approached 1.7% of GDP. CBR's latest financial stability review reiterates this concern, expanding the number of exposed corporates to 17. The issue is obviously getting more acute."

"CBR adds that a staggering 58.5% of Russian corporate debt now belongs to companies facing an increased interest burden – this figure is notable as CBR had initially projected this share to reach c.34% by the end of 2025 – a level that was breached far sooner. While CBR tried to moderate the news by explaining the jump with an enhanced sample size (now including 89 of the largest non-financial companies), the new report also comes amidst growing worries over the debt levels of the major state-owned railway company."

"On the whole, this story is not new but rather a continuation of an already observed trend. Just as a peace deal in Ukraine appears as elusive as ever, Russian policymakers are running out of easy fixes to power the real economy, which was still somewhat possible during the first couple of years after sanctions were imposed. Now, underlying weaker economic trends are being revealed at a rapid rate. Simultaneously, inflation remains too high for the ultra-cautious CBR to abandon its hawkish stance and significantly lower interest rates to support corporates. Given these mounting pressures, we forecast the USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates to rise significantly from their current levels during 2026."