Analysts at TDS are not looking for any substantial changes to the Riksbank's macro forecasts or policy rate forecasts at today's meeting.
“We also look for the Riksbank to repeat that rates will begin rising around the middle of 2018, even though we do look for that timing to eventually be pushed back toward the end of the year. However, we do look for signs of a bit more division, and are calling for a 5-1 vote to keep rates on hold, with Deputy Governor Ohlsson dissenting in favour of a rate hike.”
“We think that the details of his dissent - whether for a 25bps hike or something smaller - could give us some further insight into what the beginning of the Riksbank's hiking cycle will look like. It could also see an interesting market reaction, where a dissent in favour of a 10-15bps hike leads to a dovish market reaction, as markets reassess just how quickly Riksbank rates are likely to rise.”
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