Bullock Speech: RBA Governor speaks on interest rate outlook after the expected hold
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is addressing the press conference, explaining the reason behind leaving the key interest rate unchanged at 3.6% in the September policy meeting.
Bullock is responding to media questions as part of a new reporting format for the central bank that started this year.
Key quotes from the RBA press conference
Economy in a good spot.
Components of monthly CPI little higher than expected, inflation not running away.
We'll make November decision based on the data.
Policy is a little bit restrictive, not expansionary.
Our focus will not be on the monthly trimmed mean, will remain on quarterly.
Could be couple more rate cuts, could be not.
We are aiming at 2.5% for core inflation, will have to think about policy if not going there.
Market services inflation is a bit sticky.
Economic Indicator
RBA Press Conference
Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) economic policy decision, the Governor delivers a press conference explaining the monetary policy decision. The usual format is a roughly one-hour presser starting with prepared remarks and then opening to questions from the press. Hawkish comments tend to boost the Australian Dollar (AUD), while on the opposite, a dovish message tends to weaken it.
Read more.Next release: Tue Sep 30, 2025 05:30
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Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
This section below was published at 04:30 GMT to cover the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy announcements and the initial market reaction.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced on Tuesday that it held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.6% after concluding the September monetary policy meeting.
The decision aligned with the market expectations.
Summary of the RBA monetary policy statement
Policy decision was unanimous.
The decline in underlying inflation has slowed.
Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.
Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions.
Both headline and trimmed mean inflation were within the 2–3 per cent range in the june quarter.
Board decided that it was appropriate to maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting.
While partial and volatile, suggest that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected at the time of the August.
Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and this seems to be having some impact, but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions.
Domestic economic activity is recovering but the outlook remains uncertain.
Board judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve.
Board remains alert to the heightened level of uncertainty about the outlook.
Uncertainty in the global economy remains elevated.
Monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in australia.
There is a little more clarity on the scope and scale of us tariffs and policy responses in other countries, suggesting that more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided.
AUD/USD reaction to the RBA interest rate decision
The Australian Dollar picks up fresh bids in an immediate reaction to the RBA’s decision. The AUD/USD pair tests 0.6600, up 0.33% on the day, as of writing.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.01% | -0.32% | -0.20% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.07% | -0.39% | -0.27% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | 0.07% | -0.04% | 0.01% | -0.35% | -0.20% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.03% | -0.27% | 0.02% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.07% | -0.01% | -0.03% | -0.34% | -0.19% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.32% | 0.39% | 0.35% | 0.27% | 0.34% | 0.13% | 0.34% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.27% | 0.20% | -0.02% | 0.19% | -0.13% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | 0.06% | -0.00% | -0.07% | 0.01% | -0.34% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published on September 29 at 22:45 GMT as a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy announcements.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the interest rate at 3.60% in September.
- RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference and any tweaks to the Monetary Policy Decision Statement will be closely scrutinized.
- The RBA policy announcements could rock the Australian Dollar.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on track to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.6% after ending its September monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. The decision will be announced at 04:30 GMT.
The Monetary Policy Decision Statement will not be accompanied by the quarterly economic forecasts, but will be followed by RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference at 05:30 GMT.
With the rate cut pause widely expected, any tweaks to the Monetary Policy Decision Statement and any surprises offered by Governor Bullock’s comments during the press conference could stir the Australian Dollar (AUD).
RBA awaits quarterly CPI before the next interest rate move
Testifying before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics a week ago, RBA Governor Bullock said that she is more confident that inflation will stay in the bank’s target of the 2% to 3% band.
“Labour market conditions have eased a little, with unemployment rising slightly, but some tightness remains,” Bullock told the Australian parliament.
Bullock clearly downplayed the prospects of a rate cut this week, noting that the “Board will remain attentive to data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide decisions.”
Therefore, the RBA is unlikely to act until the release of the quarterly Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due for release on October 29. The inflation report will help determine the central bank’s rate move for the November 4 meeting.
On September 24, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the monthly CPI rose 3.0% in August from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in July, mostly due to base effects. It came in just above forecasts of 2.9%.
Australian consumer prices rose at the fastest annual pace in a year in August after a hot July, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut at its November meeting to 50% from almost 70% before the data.
“Details of the report, mostly in the services sector, suggested some upside risk for third-quarter inflation, which led Barrenjoey, Deutsche Bank, the National Australia Bank, Macquarie and Citi Australia to give up their calls for a rate cut in November,” according to Reuters.
How will the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision impact AUD/USD?
AUD/USD is holding its recovery momentum from three-week lows of 0.6521 as it heads into the RBA policy announcements on Tuesday.
The language in the Monetary Policy Decision Statement and any hints from RBA Governor Bullock will be key to determining the direction of interest rates and the AUD.
If the central bank sticks to its cautious rhetoric on further easing, while maintaining ‘the data-dependent’ stance, the AUD could witness a buying resurgence on diminishing odds of a rate cut in November.
On the contrary, if Bullock voices concerns over the economic outlook due to US tariffs as well as over the labor market, investors could perceive the pause as dovish, leaving the door open for a rate reduction in November. In this scenario, Aussie sellers could regain control.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, highlights key technical levels for trading AUD/USD following the policy announcement.
“A cautious hold could provide additional legs to the AUD/USD recovery, targeting the previous week’s high of 0.6628. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is looking to pierce the midline from below, adding credence to the renewed upside in the pair. A sustained move above the 0.6628 barrier could put the 0.6650 psychological level to test.”
On the contrary, “AUD/USD could come under fresh selling pressure on a dovish message by the RBA. The pair could retest the three-week trough of 0.6521, where the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns. A daily candlestick close below that level could initiate a fresh downtrend toward the 0.6450 psychological level, with the last line of defense for buyers seen at the 200-day SMA at 0.6404,” Dhwani adds.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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FXStreet Team
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