RBA minutes: “Significant uncertainties” on the economic outlook


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board shifted its bias to cash rate position by terming the rate change outlook "more evenly balanced than previously," in its recent monetary policy meeting on February 05. The minutes released at 00:30 GMT on February 19 says the Monetary Policy Board saw "significant uncertainties" on the economic outlook while seeing themselves as a source of stability.

Key points (Source: RBA)

  • Monetary Policy Board saw "significant uncertainties" on the economic outlook.
  • Board saw scenarios where interest rates could eventually rise, or fall.
  • Probabilities around these scenarios were more evenly balanced than before.
  • No strong case for near-term move in rates, better to be a source of stability.
  • Current policy should allow for progress on unemployment and inflation.
  • Members would continue to "assess the outlook carefully".
  • Board spent some time on housing market, price falls large by historical standards.
  • Given past rise in prices, the recent fall should have a only a small economic impact.
  • However "if prices were to fall much further" it could weaken consumption, gdp.
  • Outlook for consumption a "key uncertainty" for policy.
  • Notable drop in home loan approvals by banks due to weaker demand, tighter credit.
  • Pipeline of dwelling investment large, but likely to decline faster than first thought.
  • Labour market stronger than other economic data.
  • Board noted downside risks to global economy had increased.
  • Signs china growth had slowed more than implied by gdp data.
  • Trade tensions a "material risk" to the global outlook.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Get Weekly Crypto trade ideas!  
Empower yourself with the best market insights

Join FXStreet Premium!    

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD falls toward 1.20 as the dollar gains further ground

EUR/USD is under pressure as the dollar gains ground across the board, amid a damp market mood. The euro fails to benefit from the European regulators' decision to reinstate the J&J vaccine.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD remains pressured below 1.3950 amid mixed UK data

GBP/USD is trading below 1.3950, extending the pullback from its seven-week highs. The dollar benefits from the risk-off mood, while the pound struggles after CPI missed with 0.7% and as UK PM Johnson warns of winter covid wave.

GBP/USD News

Gold likely to face stiff resistance near $1795-$1800, focus on yields

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded on Tuesday as the US Treasury yields tumbled alongside global stocks. Surging covid infections globally brought a reality check into the markets and triggered a fresh risk-aversion wave.

Gold News

Binance needs to breach this crucial supply barrier to set up record levels again

Binance Coin price shows a short-term rejection around the supply zone’s upper layer at $594.32. A close above the said level is a must if BNB bulls want to scale to new highs. Supply distribution shows that whales holding between 100,000 to 1,000,000 BNB are accumulating.

Read more

Bank of Canada Preview: Dovish surprise to lift USD/CAD

Bank of Canada is expected to leave its policy unchanged at 0.25%. Investors await adjustments to BoC’s asset-buying program. USD/CAD is likely to react more significantly to a dovish surprise.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures