RBA: first rate hike to come in Q1 2019? - Nomura

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Analysts at Nomura explained that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate at 1.50% as was uniformly expected.

Key Quotes:

"The press release repeated key messages and did not indicate any material shift in thinking. Rates bears could point to the addition of a new phrase, that “the rate of wage growth appears to have troughed”, although bulls could note a more emphatic comment that “the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have slowed”.

Overall, the press release suggests that, with the passage of time, the RBA still believes it is on track towards meeting its inflation and employment objectives. We remain on the lookout for any shift in tone over coming months, which we believe will most likely be in a hawkish direction. Our base case remains for a first rate hike in Q1 2019, although we still see risks tilted towards an earlier move."

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD declines as market caution lifts US Dollar

GBP/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.3200 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair depreciated as the US Dollar gained momentum, driven by a combination of robust domestic economic data and a complex, mixed geopolitical landscape.

EUR/USD weakens below 1.1400 as Fed hike bets lift US Dollar

The EUR/USD pair trades on a negative note near 1.1380 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The major pair extends the decline as traders continue to assess the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal.

Gold retains bearish bias near two-week low as Fed hike bets support USD

Gold recovers slightly from a fresh two-week low, near $4,080 touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through. The US Dollar stands firm near its highest level since May 2025 amid firming expectations of a Fed rate hike, which, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding bullion. Furthermore, mixed US-Iran signals over Tehran's nuclear issues favor the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the commodity remains to the downside.

Bitcoin faces weakening structural demand as ETP outflows reach record levels — Wintermute

Bitcoin (BTC) came under renewed pressure after geopolitical tensions resurfaced and the Federal Reserve (Fed) struck a more hawkish tone, according to a Wintermute report on Tuesday. The report states that Bitcoin's two largest sources of structural demand are contributing less buying pressure to support its price.

"Rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic": UK's fiscal crisis outlasts another Prime Minister

Keir Starmer's resignation as the UK Prime Minister comes ten years after the Brexit referendum vote, a coincidence that financial markets have been quick to note. The British Pound trades around 1.3220 against the US Dollar on Thursday.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.