RBA: 50% chance of a rate hike by the end of 2019 - Westpac

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Analysts at Westpac argue that the markets are now broadly pricing in Westpac’s view on the outlook for the RBA cash rate with only around a 50% chance of a rate hike by the end of 2019.

Key Quotes:

"That is in stark contrast to a year ago when our call that rates would remain on hold in 2018 and 2019 was well out of market with markets anticipating around 75 basis points of tightening by the end of 2019."

"A weakening housing market; soft inflation and wages growth; an uncertain consumer and pressures on funding have all conspired to cool markets’ expectations. That key dynamic around an uncertain consumer facing constraints on income growth with a falling savings rate always stood out as a key constraint on the ability of the household sector to lift spending in the way anticipated by the markets."

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1600, seems vulnerable near multi-month low

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1530 region, or the lowest level since November 2025, and lower for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. Spot prices slide back below the 1.1600 mark during the Asian session and seem vulnerable to slide further.

GBP/USD slips below key averages as geopolitical risks mount

GBP/USD fell about 0.35% on Tuesday, settling around 1.3350 after slipping below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average for the first time since early December. The pair has pulled back sharply from its late-January high near 1.3870, shedding over 500 pips in a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Gold rebounds ahead of US ADP, will it last?

Gold finds renewed Asian bids and retests $5,230 early Wednesday after the heavy sell-off on Tuesday. The US Dollar stands tall amid escalating Middle East tensions and reduced dovish Fed expectations. Gold defends $5,000 or 50% Fibo level after facing rejection at the 78.6% Fibo resistance at $5,342 amid bullish RSI.