At today's MPC meeting, there is little doubt that the NBP will keep its reference rate on hold at 1.5%, where it has been since March 2015, according to analysts at TD Securities.
“Although EURPLN has been quite volatile and pressured higher recently, it does not appear to be at a particularly extreme level looking at the longer-term history. And CPI inflation continues to be fairly well-behaved.”
“Headline inflation moved up to 1.9% Y/Y in June from a prior 1.7%, almost entirely due to the effect of higher oil prices. It still remains below the 2.5% central inflation target, but, more importantly, core inflation is running at even lower levels, 0.5% Y/Y in May. The NBP will also present its updated forecasts for CPI inflation and GDP for 2018, 2019 and 2020.”
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