PMI surveys show broadening global recovery - AmpGFX

Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the November data showed a further step up in the global manufacturing PMI to 52.1, a high since August 2014 while the emerging market manufacturing PMI stepped down somewhat to 50.7 after rising to a high October since Feb-2015.

Key Quotes

“The fall in the emerging market PMI reflected a significant pull-back in India that has been struggling with a poorly implemented redenomination of its currency designed to recoup income from the black economy, but spilled over into widespread economic disruption.  The Russia PMI, in contrast, rose to a high in data available since 2013.  The Chinese Caixin PMI eased a bit from its high since July-2014.”

“The global services PMI edged up to a high since November 2015, whereas the emerging market PMI edged down to a low since June this year.”

“A sharp fall in India appears to be primarily responsible for the decline in the emerging market PMI, again related to its currency redenomination.  We might expect this to recover as India sorts through this issue. The Russian services PMI recovered from recent falls to approach its high in July this year, a high in data available since 2013.  The China Caixin services PMI firmed to a high since December 2014.”

“In the major economies, the USA manufacturing PMI indicators strengthened.  The ISM index rose for the third month in a row to 53.2, revisiting the high this year in June, up from the low in December of 48.0.  The USA Markit PMI rose to 54.1, a high since October last year, up from its low in May of 50.7.  The modest recovery in the energy sector has helped USA manufacturing recover.”

“The Eurozone manufacturing PMI firmed to 53.7 a high since Jan-2014.  The UK PMI retraced for a second month to 53.4.  Japan retraced from a high in October since January to 51.3. The Canadian PMI rose for a second month to 51.5.  All the major economies were above 50 and showed modest to moderate growth.”

“The USA service sector Markit PMI recovered from its dip in October to rise to a high since October 2015 of 57.2.  The USA ISM non-manufacturing index eased a bit to 54.6 from a high in October since November 2015.”

“The Eurozone services PMI rose for a second month to 53.8 to a high since December 2015.  The UK services PMI increased to 55.2, a high since January 2016.  The Japanese PMI rose for a second month to 51.8, a high since January 2016.”