OPEC+ supply increase in line with our expectations – ING

OPEC+ agreed to another large supply hike over the weekend, increasing it by 411k b/d effective July. The increase is similar to those in May and June. By the end of July, the group will have brought back more than 60% of the 2.2m b/d worth of planned supply increases, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Lower Oil prices continue to weigh on US drilling activity.

"The latest increase is in line with our expectations. We’re also assuming that OPEC+ will continue with these large supply hikes. This would mean that the full 2.2m b/d of supply will be brought back by the end of the third quarter of this year, 12 months ahead of schedule. This is the key assumption behind our price forecast for ICE Brent to average US$59/bbl in the fourth quarter. Despite the large increase, Oil prices rallied this morning."

"Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine added further support to the market this morning. Ukraine carried out large-scale drone attacks on several Russian airfields, which comes ahead of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine this week. In addition, some US senators are pushing for harder sanctions against Russia, with a proposal to impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries that buy Russian Oil. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal hope to have sanctions in place by the time of the G-7 summit in mid-June. While President Trump appears to be increasingly frustrated with President Putin, he’s so far been reluctant to impose additional sanctions. Actions that successfully target Russian Oil flows will change the outlook for the Oil market drastically."

"Lower Oil prices continue to weigh on US drilling activity. The latest Baker Hughes data shows that the US Oil rig count fell by 4 to 461, the fifth consecutive week of declines. Given our view for Oil prices to move lower towards the end of this year, we would expect to see additional slowing in drilling activity, calling into question forecasts for growth in US Oil supply next year. The latest positioning data shows that speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent by 4,379 lots to 158,950 lots as of last Tuesday. It shows that speculators are quite split, with the gross long position increasing by 12,543 lots over the week and the gross short increasing by 16,922 lots."