OPEC sticks to demand forecast, sees balanced Oil market next year – Commerzbank

In its monthly report, OPEC left its forecasts for Oil demand this year and next unchanged, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Signs of an oversupply in the first half of 2026

"Oil production by OPEC+ countries bound by quotas rose by 540,000 barrels per day in September, in line with the agreed production increase. Nevertheless, production was 260,000 barrels per day below the agreed level, as some countries produced less than allowed. These included Iraq and Russia, which is likely due to the necessary cuts to compensate for previous overproduction."

"Kazakhstan, on the other hand, continued to produce significantly above the agreed level. Despite OPEC+ expanding Oil production to a good 43 million barrels per day, the Oil market is expected to remain undersupplied in the current quarter when current Oil production is compared with OPEC's estimated demand for Oil from OPEC+."

"Based on OPEC forecasts, there are signs of an oversupply in the first half of 2026, before the Oil market is likely to slip back into a deficit in the second half of next year. On an annual average, the Oil market would be almost balanced next year. Other agencies, such as the US Energy Information Administration and the IEA, however, expect a significant oversupply next year. The IEA is publishing its new forecasts today, Tuesday."