OPEC sees smaller Oil supply deficit in 2026 – ING

Oil prices are trading almost flat this morning, with the market focused on Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. OPEC's expectations of increasing output to ease a supply shortfall next year further weighed on prices, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

OPEC increases supply in September

"In its monthly Oil market report, OPEC left its global Oil demand growth forecasts largely unchanged at 1.3m b/d and 1.4m b/d for this year and 2026, respectively. Similarly, the group also maintained its supply projections and expects those from producers outside the wider OPEC+ alliance to rise by 810k b/d this year and 630k b/d in 2026."

"However, the organisation has modified its expectations for the global Oil market balance and now anticipates that supply will closely match demand next year, primarily due to rising OPEC+ production."

"The release also shows that OPEC increased supply by 540k b/d month on month to 28.4m b/d in September. Most of the members churned out higher output over the month, led by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Iran and Venezuela. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly Oil market report later today."