Oil prices rose marginally higher yesterday despite OPEC trimming demand estimates. ICE Brent settled just below US$65/bbl. The market is digesting fast-moving policy developments on the tariff front, while balancing them with nuclear talks between the US and Iran. Clearly, the market is more focused on tariffs and what they mean for oil demand, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
OPEC continues to maintain more bullish demand estimates
"Chinese trade data released yesterday was fairly strong when it comes to oil. Crude oil imports averaged almost 12.2m b/d in March, up 4.8% year on year and nearly 9% higher month on month. Yet cumulative crude imports are still down 1.5% YoY so far this year. Meanwhile, refined product exports rose almost 40% MoM in March to 5.24mt. Year-to-date, though, exports are still down 15.9% YoY. Refined exports were weaker due to lower export margins."
"OPEC released its monthly oil market report yesterday, taking the opportunity to reduce demand growth estimates for this year and next. Given recent tariff developments, OPEC reduced its 2025 oil demand growth estimate by 150k b/d to 1.3m b/d YoY. Demand for 2026 saw a similar reduction; it’s now expected to grow by 1.28m b/d. As we mentioned last week, the broader weakness in prices suggest the market is pricing in a much larger demand hit due to tariffs."
"In addition, OPEC continues to maintain more bullish demand estimates than other agencies. Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that oil demand will grow by just over 1m b/d this year. Later today, we will find out if the IEA lowered demand estimates amid an escalation in tariffs when the agency releases its monthly oil report."
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