OPEC+ expected to go with another large supply hike – ING

Oil prices moved higher yesterday, with ICE Brent settling just shy of a 3% gain on the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

OPEC+ to decide on August production levels this weekend

"Trade optimism is providing a boost to the market, following the Trump administration's announcement that it reached a trade deal with Vietnam. However, this optimism may be short-lived, with OPEC+ deciding on August production levels this weekend. The expectation is that the group will go with another large supply increase of 411k b/d. Given the uncertainty, market participants will probably not want to carry too much risk into the long US weekend."

"Furthermore, next week marks the end of President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. We could see tariff increases reinstated on some US trading partners if trade deals are not concluded. This leaves a fair amount of uncertainty going into next week."

"The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.85m barrels over the last week, the first weekly increase since mid-May. The build was driven by a large decline in US crude oil exports, which fell by 1.97m b/d week on week. Meanwhile, crude oil imports increased by 975k b/d WoW. For refined products, gasoline inventories increased by 4.19m barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 1.71m barrels."