OPEC deal: More important for OPEC’s reputation than the oil market - Danske Bank

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to cut output today, from the beginning of 2017. According to analysts from Danske Bank, the deal means more to the OPEC that to the oil market. They see crude oil prices heading higher during 2017. 

Key Quotes: 

“OPEC will aim to lower output to 32.5mb/d by 1 January 2017. The deal is contingent on non-OPEC producers cutting production by 600kb/d. According to OPEC, Russia has already committed to delivering 300kb/d in cuts. OPEC will have a meeting with non-OPEC producers to finalise this on 9 December.”

“The lack of real commitment from OPEC today (deal is contingent on meeting with nonOPEC producers) highlights that present conditions make it difficult for OPEC to succeed as a cartel. OPEC’s position on the oil market is under pressure from the emergence of alternative fuel sources, large shale-oil reserves in, e.g. the US, staggering world oil demand under pressure from weak global economic growth and a strong dollar and finally lack of compliance within OPEC.”

“The failed attempts at a deal over the past year as well as the fragile state of public finances in most OPEC member countries mean that the oil market is likely to test OPEC compliance with the deal. Hence, if it is implemented it may push oil prices a bit higher.”

“We look for oil prices to head higher in 2017. This is based on our expectation of higher global economic growth and inflation, in particular in the US economy, the world’s leading oil consumer, which should support growth in oil demand. In one year’s time, we also look for the USD to trade at a lower level than today, which supports a higher oil price. We expect the price of Brent crude to rise to USD58/bl in Q4 17.”