OPEC+ and global supply risks to put a floor in crude markets - TDS

TD Securities analysts suggest that strong fundamentals are likely to offer support in the near term at $50/bbl and $60/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively after crude oil felt the burn from the Mexico and China trade war worries, while also having to contend with bearish US inventory stats.

Key Quotes

“Despite the fact the OPEC countries cannot decide on a date for their meeting, Saudi and Russia have been talking up the need for an extension. The $60/bbl level in Brent is a pain point for Russia, and certainly Saudi, and it is no surprise the recent selloff prompted both parties to talk up extended cooperation from OPEC+ on production cuts. Comments this morning from Russia's Novak that he sees a high risk of oversupply and potentially $40/bbl oil in the second half of the year if there is no extension is just the latest hint that the countries will come to an agreement.”

“Add to this the likely continued decline in Venezuelan production amid the restriction on US diluent exports, the constant geopolitical risk in Iran and Libya, and the eventual increase in refinery utilization in the US after floods and outages recover, and the global fundamentals appear much stronger. Furthermore, the easing of Mexico tensions and the somewhat short term nature of floods and refinery outages which have have constrained US crude demand.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Take advantage of market volatility with our daily Forex, Crypto and Indices Trade Ideas!

Become Premium!    

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds on to weekly gains, aims to 1.2100

EUR/USD pressures this week high at 1.2079 after the EU services sector moved back into expansion territory according to Markit, the first time since August.


GBP/USD extends decline towards the 1.3800 price zone

Upbeat UK data fell short of boosting the pound, hurt by Brexit jitters in Ireland. US macroeconomic figures making the difference in the dollar’s favor.


Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP plummet, breaching critical support levels

Bitcoin price has dropped 12.7% since yesterday and shows no signs of stopping. Ethereum price follows the pioneer crypto’s lead and might retest $2,000 again. Unlike BTC or ETH, XRP price shows signs of recovery as long as it stays above a critical demand zone.

Read more

XAU/USD drops below $1,780 area as US T-bond yields rebound

Gold lost its traction after climbing toward $1,800 on Friday. 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up nearly 2%. Latest PMI data from US underlined strong price pressures.

Gold News

Bionano Genomics Inc runs into technical resistance, put options may work here

BNGO shares have continued to suffer post the retail meme crowd moving on. BNGO shares bounce from lows as DeMark buy signal flashes on Monday. BNGO shares trend up to resistance at 100 day moving average.

Read more