Oil to hit $125 on a war between Russia and Ukraine – Rabobank

War between Russia and Ukraine would be a nightmare scenario for energy markets. An impactful war happening would lift oil prices to the $125 level, strategists at Rabobank report.

Assuming all countries halt purchases of Russian energy, oil could riseto $175 

“The US would be hard pushed to supply all the shortfall that physical (and Russian political) disruptions to oil and gas pipelines could produce, even with the help of Qatar. War will also result in elevated risk-premiums and higher transit costs. On that basis, oil may hit $125 and natural gas $200 in per barrel of oil equivalent terms.”

“Assuming all countries halt purchases of Russian energy, the potential price impact would be huge, with oil rising to $175 and European gas to $250.”