Oil Price Analysis: WTI pushes higher

API inventories show another massive draw of -8.322mln barrels.
OPEC+ may temper supply restart with extra oil cuts from cheats.

Rajan Dhall, MSTA FX Daily

API weekly data and OPEC+ developments

The latest weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly data shows crude stocks fells -8.322 mln. Inventory at Cushing Oaklahoma increased by 0.548 mln. Gasoline stocks declined by -3.611 mln and distillate stocks produced a build of 3.030 mln.

There has been a slew of comments ahead of the OPEC JMMC meeting on Wednesday with the latest reports suggesting the cartel may keep an 842k barrel per day cut in August and September. This would be considered due to some members who did not fully comply with the OPEC+ cut arrangement. The finalisation of these cuts will be outlined on Wednesday at the JMMC meeting.

Elsewhere here are some of the key headlines from the OPEC report earlier in the session:

Global oil demand to surge in 2021.
Non-OPEC supply will be slower to recover:
OPEC pumped 22.27 million b/d in June.

WTI 1-hour chart

In an initial reaction, WTI prices shot up to reach USD 40.19 per barrel on Tuesday. This is a 2.25% increase on the session and interesting as earlier on in the day prices were struggling down at USD 38.70 per barrel. The top of the pattern on the chart below could be tested and if it is broken then the highs at USD 40.39 could be next. That would also mean a break of the recent range highs. Overall it seems this uptrend is still intact for now.

Additional levels

WTI

Overview
Today last price	40.5
Today Daily Change	0.71
Today Daily Change %	1.78
Today daily open	39.79

Trends
Daily SMA20	39.66
Daily SMA50	35.56
Daily SMA100	32.65
Daily SMA200	44.51

Levels
Previous Daily High	40.87
Previous Daily Low	39.71
Previous Weekly High	41.14
Previous Weekly Low	38.73
Previous Monthly High	41.65
Previous Monthly Low	34.45
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	40.16
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	40.43
Daily Pivot Point S1	39.38
Daily Pivot Point S2	38.97
Daily Pivot Point S3	38.22
Daily Pivot Point R1	40.54
Daily Pivot Point R2	41.29
Daily Pivot Point R3	41.7

Author

Rajan Dhall, MSTA

FX Daily

Rajan Dhall is an experienced market analyst, who has been trading professionally since 2007 managing various funds producing exceptional returns.

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