Oil market faces more or less significant oversupply next year – Commerzbank

The IEA also published its regular monthly report, in which it maintains its forecast of a record supply surplus of more than 4 million barrels per day in the coming year. This is because Oil supply is expected to increase by a further 2.5 million barrels per day next year, while demand is expected to rise by only 770,000 barrels per day, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC forecasts an oversupply in the first half of 2026

"We consider the assumption of supply growth to be too high. The resulting oversupply would cause the Oil price to fall significantly. It is unrealistic to assume that supply would remain unaffected by this. In addition, there was a significant upward revision of non-OPEC supply in the third quarter of 2025. The resulting significant oversupply led to a sharp increase in global Oil inventories, which reached their highest level in more than four years in September. Most of the stockpiling took place on the water, i.e., in Oil tankers. Inventories in OECD countries also rose to a four-year high, returning to the five-year average for the first time in a long time."

"OPEC also published its monthly report this week. It expects the market to be balanced next year. More specifically, OPEC forecasts an oversupply in the first half of 2026, followed by a deficit in the second half of 2026, which will almost offset each other. This is based on the assumption that OPEC+ production will remain at current levels. Therefore, OPEC+ has no leeway to further increase production next year without causing an oversupply."

"In its latest monthly report, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts a global Oil market surplus of 2.2 million barrels per day for next year. The price of Brent crude Oil is therefore set to fall to an average of USD 55 per barrel. The EIA has revised its forecast for US crude Oil production slightly upwards. It should reach a record level of 13.86 million barrels per day this month, but will then decline steadily. The EIA still expects a slight decline in production for the coming year, but the level is slightly higher than previously forecast. In comparison, the IEA forecasts a slight increase in US crude Oil production next year."