Oil gains on easing trade tensions – ING

NYMEX WTI is trading above $63/bbl, while ICE Brent was seen approaching $66/bbl on US-China trade talk optimism. Meanwhile, the latest round of discussions between the US and Iran also concluded with both sides agreeing to further discussions and negotiations, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Oil holds gains on trade talk optimism

"The latest data from Baker Hughes shows that drilling activity in the US slowed for the second consecutive week, as several US oil companies limit planned capital expenditures because of low oil prices. The number of active US oil rigs fell by five over the week to 474 as of 9 May 2025, the lowest since 24 January and 22 below the year-ago level. The total rig count stood at 578 over the reporting week, down from 584 a week earlier and 4% lower than the same time last year. Primary Vision’s frac spread count, which gives an idea of completion activity, decreased by six over the week to 195."

"The latest positioning data shows that speculators decreased their net longs in ICE Brent by 12,383 lots for a second consecutive week to 97,558 lots as of last Tuesday, the least bullish bets since the week ending on 29 October 2024. This was driven predominantly by the rising short positions by 8,887 lots to 113,008 lots over the reporting week. Similarly, in the NYMEX WTI, speculators trimmed their net long by 10,094 lots (after reporting gains for three consecutive weeks) to 143,938 lots over the reporting week. This market continues to gauge the potential tariff impact on oil flows into the US."