NZD/USD subdued around 0.6150 after US PMIs and Fed minutes

During the week, the New Zealand dollar is down 0.82%.
The market sentiment is mixed as US equities rally alongside safe-haven currencies.
The Fed to hike 75 bps in the July meeting, as shown by June’s FOMC minutes.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The New Zealand dollar drops for the second straight day but trades within the boundaries of Tuesday’s price action, just above the weekly low at around 0.6150s, following the release of the US Federal Reserve June meeting minutes. At 0.6152, the NZD/USD portrays a risk-off mood in the FX space, though US equities are rising.

NZD/USD drops due to risk-off mood and a strong US dollar

The kiwi has been under downward pressure as well as most G8 currencies. A buoyant greenback courtesy of worldwide recession fears, another China coronavirus outbreak, and elevated inflation spurred safe-haven flows since Tuesday. The US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s performance vs. six currencies, rose above the 107.000 mark for the first time since December 2002, reaching a 20-year high at 107.264.

Concerning the awaited US Federal Reserve’s minutes, FOMC pledged to its hawkish posture, and policymakers agreed that a 75 bps rate hike is warranted. Fed officials noted that even a “more restrictive stance” could be appropriate if inflation prevails while acknowledging that economic growth risks are skewed to the downside.

In the meantime, the US 2s-10s yield curve has remained inverted since Tuesday late in the North American session. Analysts at ING commented, “Inverted yield curves are typically bad news for pro-growth currencies (commodity exporters + Europe & Asia ex-Japan) and typically good news for the dollar and the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. This environment looks set to continue over the summer months as the Fed continues to push ahead with tightening.”

Elsewhere, an absent New Zealand economic docket left NZD/USD traders adrift to US economic data and market sentiment.

Earlier during the New York session, the US docket featured S&P Global and US ISM Services and Composite PMIs, with figures beating expectations but trailing previous readings. That illustrates a gloomy scenario as the US economic growth slows down.

The week ahead, the US economic docket will feature ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, and Fed speakers on Thursday.

NZD/USD Key Technical Levels

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6152
Today Daily Change	-0.0018
Today Daily Change %	-0.29
Today daily open	0.6175

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.629
Daily SMA50	0.6376
Daily SMA100	0.6598
Daily SMA200	0.6736

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6227
Previous Daily Low	0.6124
Previous Weekly High	0.6327
Previous Weekly Low	0.6148
Previous Monthly High	0.6576
Previous Monthly Low	0.6197
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6163
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6188
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6123
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6072
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.602
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6226
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6278
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6329

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant below 0.7050 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD reverses an Asian session dip on Monday as renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy boosts investor confidence, keeping a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar and supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the one-month high, touched last Thursday, as bulls wait for the crucial RBA decision before taking fresh positions.

USD/JPY climbs to 158.00 neighborhood as BoJ uncertainty weighs on the JPY

The USD/JPY pair gains some positive traction at the start of a new week, recovering further from Friday's post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) swing low to sub-157.00 levels. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 158.00 neighborhood during the Asian session and seems unaffected by fresh intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Gold finds relief from Oil’s decline as traders await key US economic data

Gold retains a positive bias during American trading hours on Monday after sliding to a fresh yearly low of $3,870 on Friday and ending October down 6.87%. A pullback in Oil prices amid diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran supports the precious metal. However, the rebound lacks conviction as the fundamental backdrop continues to raise doubts over a sustained recovery.

Dogecoin risks deeper slide as whales diverge

Dogecoin hovers around $0.075 on Monday after falling for the fifth consecutive week since the end of September. Santiment data shows diverging whale activity, as large holders reduce their positions while smaller whale wallets accumulate tokens. Meanwhile, weakening on-chain metrics and a deteriorating technical outlook suggest that DOGE could remain vulnerable to further losses.

Why strong US growth could not stop the bond rally and AI selloff

The US economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate, yet Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq ended October with its worst monthly performance since March 2025. The market is no longer rewarding capital expenditure simply because it supports growth. Investors are testing whether that expenditure can produce cash flow and returns above the cost of capital.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.