- NZD/USD trades close to a two-week high around 0.5980 amid improved market mood.
- The US Dollar drops ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting, scheduled for May 1.
- NZ Q1 Employment data will guide the next move in the Kiwi Dollar.
The NZD/USD pair refreshes two-week high near 0.5980 in Monday’s European session. The Kiwi asset is up 0.55% as appeal for risk-sensitive assets is upbeat. The US Dollar drops as weak United States data has raised concerns over its economic outlook.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains near the key support of 105.50 due to a poor outlook by the S&P Global PMI survey for April and weak Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
Meanwhile, investors shift focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy, which will be announced on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool shows that interest rates will remain unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. Therefore, fresh guidance on interest rates will influence further action in the US Dollar.
On the New Zealand Dollar front, investors will focus on the Q1 Employment data, which will be published on Tuesday. The labor market is expected to have grown by 0.3%, slower than the prior pace of 0.4%. The Labor Cost Index that feeds price pressures are forecasted to rise slowly by 0.8% from 1.0% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023. Tight labor market conditions would allow the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep the monetary policy restrictive for a longer period.
NZD/USD pair rebounds strongly after the discovery of buying interest around 0.5850. The Kiwi asset rebounded after a Double Bottom formation, which lead to a bullish reversal emerges. The asset has extended its upside above the horizontal resistance plotted from April 1 low around 0.5939, which has become a support for New Zealand Dollar bulls.
The near-term outlook improves as the asset holds gains above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.5950. The 200-EMA around 0.5990 is still a major roadblock for the New Zealand Dollar bulls.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00, suggesting a bullish momentum has been triggered.
Further upside above the psychological resistance of 0.6000 will drive the asset towards April 4 high around 0.6050 and the round-level resistance of 0.6100.
On the contrary, a fresh downside would appear if the asset breaks below April 16 low at 0.5860. This would drag the asset toward 8 September 2023 low at 0.5847, followed by the round-level support of 0.5900
NZD/USD four-hour chart
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