NZD/USD: In search of fresh clues around 4-year low

The absence of fresh challenges to the US-China trade deal fails to please Kiwi buyers seeking positive numbers from home/abroad as the NZD/USD pair remains on the back foot around four-year low while taking rounds to 0.6340 at the start of Thursday’s Asian session.

The US President Donald Trump tried portraying a rosy picture of the US-China relations with this tweet that “we are doing very well in China”. However, news that Beijing blocked a US navy vessel from docking at a wharf in Qingdao told altogether a different story.

Adding to the uncertainty are mixed comments from White House Adviser John Bolton and White House Director of Legislative Affairs Marc Short as far as the trade relations/scope for that is concerned.

The economic calendar was also light but disappointing data concerning construction work from the largest customer Australia played its role to drag the NZD/USD pair downwards to fresh lows since 2015.

New Zealand’s ANZ Activity Outlook and Business Confidence for August will be of immediate interest to the Kiwi traders. While Activity Outlook flashed 5% for July, Business Confidence was a downer with -44.3 level. “July’s Business survey saw Confidence drop to the lowest level since Aug’18, but it was capacity utilization dropping to its lowest print since 2009 that stood out, underscoring the risk that GDP and CPI would miss target. Another poor print should confirm a follow up cut in Nov,” says TD securities.

During the US session, the second estimate of second-quarter (Q2) 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Consumer Expenditure Prices and Pending Home Sales are likely to entertain markets.

Technical Analysis

Unless breaking nearly three-week old descending trend-line, at 0.6384 now, prices are less likely to regain 0.6400 area. Alternatively, September 2015 low surrounding 0.6240 is on the bears’ radar.