- NZD/USD trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day around 0.6260 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- The US private sector added more jobs than expected in September.
- The RBNZ is anticipated to cut interest rates next week.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.6260 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising US yields weigh on the pair.
The Greenback edges higher after the encouraging jobs report on Wednesday. Private sector employment in the US climbed 143,000 in September and above the estimated 120,000 jobs, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported. This report indicated the labor market is holding its ground despite some signs of weakness.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday that the Fed's fight to return inflation to its 2% target may take longer than expected to complete and limit how far interest rates can be cut, per Reuters. Interest rate futures contracts have priced in a nearly 35.6% chance of a half-point cut in November versus a 64.4% possibility of a quarter-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Market players will monitor the US September ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Thursday, which is expected to improve to 51.7 in September from 51.5 in August. Additionally, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the final S&P Global Services PMI will be published.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under selling pressure amid rising bets of a more aggressive rate reduction from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) at its upcoming next week, with an 87% odds of a 50-basis points (bps) rate cut being priced in.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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