NZD is underperforming all major currencies and faces – BBH

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is underperforming all major currencies and faces additional downside risk in the short-term, BBH FX analysts report.

NZD faces additional downside risk in the short-term

"The RBNZ is widely expected to slash the policy rate 25bps to 2.75% (9:00pm New York). The swaps market implies 45% probability of a bigger 50bps cut to 2.50%. The steeper downturn in New Zealand Q2 real GDP leaves scope for the RBNZ to front-load rate cuts."

"In August, the RBNZ stressed 'there is scope to lower the OCR further,' and projected one 25bps cut by December and another 25bps cut over H1 2026, implying the policy rate would settle around 2.50%. No Monetary Policy Statement is tied to this meeting. The next one is due November 26."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD surrenders some gains, back to 1.3420

GBP/USD holds on to moderate gains above 1.3400 the figure on Friday. Optimism surrounding the UK government’s leadership transition and expectations of further BoE tightening support the British Pound, while easing tensions in the Middle East and fading Fed rate-hike expectations weigh on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD turns positive, targets 1.1450

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances toward the 1.1440 region on Friday, up modestly for the day. With no major economic data due, lingering uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict keeps investors cautious, limiting the pair's upside.

Gold remains offered, still below $4,100

Gold struggles to extend Thursday’s rebound and navigates below the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict limits the precious metal’s upside, which is also under pressure amid rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Week ahead – US CPI and Warsh testimony to take centre stage, BoC eyed too

US inflation report and Warsh testimony to headline the week. Dollar to dominate amid slew of other US data and Mideast tensions. Amid fresh Iran escalation, China GDP to shed light on Q2 impact. Bank of Canada not expected to follow RBNZ with rate hike.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.