NZD: Doubts could arise – Commerzbank

In New Zealand, complete inflation figures are only published once a quarter; each month, only a selection of prices is tracked and the inflation rate for these is published, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

The risk of interest rates remaining unchanged has increased

"The picture is therefore incomplete, and the central bank will place significantly more weight on the entire figures for the second quarter than on the monthly figures from July when making its monetary policy decision next week."

"However, it will not completely ignore the figures published today. These indicate that inflation in New Zealand may be accelerating again. The monthly index suggests that inflation may have risen from 2.8% in June to 3.8% in July. Although it should be noted that food is overrepresented in the monthly indicator and the increase was particularly pronounced here. The full CPI may therefore rise less sharply in Q3 than the monthly indicator. Nevertheless, it could give the Reserve Bank of New Zealand pause for thought."

"Most analysts and the market expect a further cut in the key interest rate to 3% next Wednesday. However, the risk of interest rates remaining unchanged has increased somewhat with today's figures."