Nvidia stock keeps NASDAQ afloat as earnings loom

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is the primary focus of bulls on Monday as shares rise about 1.7% to $181 into the afternoon. Wednesday's fiscal second-quarter results are drawing eyeballs away from other news, and many analysts think the AI chip leader's earnings will determine the next stage of the present bull market.

Nvidia's advance can't rescue the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), however, as the index sinks 0.6% to start off the week on a downbeat note. Only the NASDAQ Composite is holding onto a slight gain. Investors are somewhat wary of Nvidia's release, as any miss could prove destructive to the broad market. More than a few investors are pointing to a popular Bank of America graph showing that the S&P 500's 5.3 price-to-book ratio is slightly higher than the DotCom bubble peak.

Bank of America Securities, August 2025

But others say we are in a new era in which compute is king, and Nvidia remains the king of compute. Antero Peak, a hedge fund within the Artisan Partners family, writes in a recent investor letter that it continues to see major upside for Nvidia and Broadcom (AVGO) due to the long ramp for AI infrastructure:

"We see a catalyst-rich path for both, NVIDIA as it accelerates its product roadmap and scales out its rack-level ecosystem, and for Broadcom as it begins to ramp its new Tomahawk 6 switch and as it hits a projected inflection point in new customer ASIC ramps from 2026–2028."

But once again, Nvidia's overperformance is up against an economic backdrop that looks dangerous to some. Barclays on Monday estimated a 50% chance of a US recession in the next two years due to lower economic growth and a slump in hiring. However, Barclays suggests this economic drag will cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates twice over the final three Fed meetings this year, something that is likely to entice market bulls.

Nvidia stock news: Jetson Thor made available to public

The news on Monday is that Nvidia has released a robotics developer kit called the Jetson AGX Thor. The developer kit and production modules allow developers to build their own AI robotics operations. The entry-level price of $3,499 makes AI robotics available to the general public for the first time and can be used in humanoid robots, agriculture and surgical applications.

Nvidia says about 2 million developers are already using its robotics stack at companies like Deere, Amazon Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Caterpillar, Figure, Hexagon, Medtronic and Meta. Compared with its predecessor, the Jetson Orin, Jetson Thor brings with it 7.5 times more AI compute and 3.5 times more energy efficiency.

“We’ve built Jetson Thor for the millions of developers working on robotic systems that interact with and increasingly shape the physical world,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “With unmatched performance and energy efficiency, and the ability to run multiple generative AI models at the edge, Jetson Thor is the ultimate supercomputer to drive the age of physical AI and general robotics.”

Nvidia Jetson AGX Thor / Nvidia.com

Nvidia stock forecast

Nvidia stock is poised in the low $180s heading into earnings on Wednesday. Wall Street expects $1.01 in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) on revenue of $46.12 billion. A major beat should place $200 in the cards for bulls, which is well below some of the analyst price targets.

TD Cowen raised its price target last week from $175 to $235, citing the smooth ramp up in delivering Blackwell AI chips. Stifel raised its price target from $202 to $212 based on "accelerating broad-based demand for GB300 infrastructure."

Some analysts have noted that Nvidia's revenue beats (eight straight) have been falling on a percentage basis compared with the Wall Street consensus, but few analysts think the AI revolution is slowing down.

Wedbush Securities said in a client note on Monday that demand and supply for Nvidia's top-of-the-line AI chips are running at ten to one in Asia.

The Fibonacci Extension chart below gives us two upside points of interest. First, there's the 361.8% Fibo at $198.08. Then comes the 423.6 Fibo at $215.68. In between those is the top of the upper trendline near $205.

If Nvidia misses the basket, then expect the share price to find support near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the high $160s or the previous high at $153.13 from January 7. In the event of a major pullback, NVDA would be unlikely to trace below the $140 level that intersects the 100-day and 200-day SMAs.

NVDA daily stock chart