Pound Sterling trades with negative bias; GBP/USD eyes 1.3600 ahead of UK jobs data

GBP/USD remains depressed for the second consecutive day amid a modest USD uptick.
Investors now look forward to the UK monthly employment details for a fresh impetus.
The focus will then shift to the release of the UK CPI and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 1.3600 mark through the Asian session on Tuesday. Traders now look forward to the release of the UK monthly jobs report, which will influence the British Pound (GBP) and provide some impetus to the currency pair.

The report published by the UK Office for National Statistics is expected to show continued softening in the UK labour market at the start of 2026. The number of people claiming jobless benefits is seen rising to 22.8K in January, from 17.9K in the previous month, while the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at a nearly two-year high level of 5.1% during the three months to December. The focus will further be on wage growth data, with regular pay (excluding bonuses) and total earnings (including bonuses) both seen moderating during the reported period.

The crucial data will be followed by the latest UK consumer inflation figures on Wednesday, which would influence expectations about the Bank of England's (BoE) policy outlook amid bets for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in March. This, in turn, will play a key role in driving the British Pound (GBP). Apart from this, traders will take cues from the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday for more clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path. The outlook, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) demand in the near term and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair.

Furthermore, the release of UK monthly Retail Sales data on Friday, along with flash PMIs from the UK and the US, might also contribute to infusing volatility during the latter part of the week. In the meantime, last Friday's softer US consumer inflation figures lifted odds that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs in June. Adding to this, traders have been pricing in the possibility of at least two Fed rate cuts in 2026, which, along with threats to the central bank's independence, might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

Economic Indicator

Claimant Count Change

The Claimant Count Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics presents the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK claiming benefits. There is a tendency for the metric to influence GBP volatility. Usually, a rise in the indicator has negative implications for consumer spending and economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bullish.

Why it matters to traders?

The change in the number of those claiming jobless benefits is an early gauge of the UK’s labor market. The figures are released for the previous month, contrary to the Unemployment Rate, which is for the prior one. This release is scheduled around the middle of the month. An increase in applications is a sign of a worsening economic situation and implies looser monetary policy, while a decrease indicates improving conditions. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be GBP-bearish.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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