Norges Bank meets on Thursday, August 18 at 08:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of six major banks regarding the upcoming central bank's Interest Rate Decision

Markets are pricing in a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike to 1.75%. Furthermore, investors will be even more focused on the wording of the statement and on the press conference by Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache.

Danske Bank

“We now expect NB to hike policy rates by 50 bps instead of 25 bps after the recent high inflation numbers. However, there will be no press briefing as this is an intermediary meeting. We still believe that the policy rate will peak in December this year at 2.25% by hiking 50 bps this week, 25 bps in September, and 25 bps in December. If we are right in our call on NB, NOK FX is not expected to be much affected.”


“We look for a 50 bps hike from Norges Bank, in line with market pricing and the consensus, and despite the Norges Bank's most recent forecast of a 25 bps hike at this meeting. Inflation has been much stronger than expected, with headline and underlying inflation running 1.7ppts and 1.3ppts above the Bank's latest forecasts, respectively.”


“Having hiked rates by 50 bps in June, on paper there are good reasons for Norway’s central bank to do the same again. Crucially the latest inflation readings have come in above the bank’s forecasts again. While the bank will be nervous about inflation, its models will also be acknowledging the fact that global market rates have fallen since June, which in isolation would be interpreted as a dovish factor. Bottom line: it’s a close call, though we narrowly favour a 25 bps move. As other central banks have found in recent weeks, Norges Bank faces a choice between sticking to its ‘forward guidance’, or adapting to the latest economic data.”


“The fact that Norges Bank will raise the policy rate by 50 bps to 1.75% is likely to be largely priced in. Inflation is higher than expected by Norges Bank in June. It will therefore in all likelihood have to adjust its inflation forecasts upward again in the new monetary policy report in September. As a result, the basis for Wednesday’s interest rate hike is likely to be higher-than-expected inflation. I see a good chance that, on the basis of new, higher inflation forecasts that will be published in September with the new monetary policy report, it will then also raise the policy rate by another 50 bps and adjust the interest rate path accordingly. Hence, if Norges Bank plans to raise the policy rate by 50 bps in September also, it will in any case have to adjust the interest rate path upward once again. It would at least have to hint at that. What does that mean for the NOK? If the Norges Bank sounds restrictive and signals another juicy move for September, the NOK should be able to appreciate against the euro.”

Credit Suisse

“We anticipate nuance from the Norges Bank, where a 50 bps hike might still not be seen as a clearly hawkish development.”


“We expect Norges Bank to hike by 50 bps at the upcoming August meeting and in September, followed by 25 bps in both November and December. This should leave the policy rate at 2.75% by year-end, which we deem to be the peak.”


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD licks its wounds at record low amid pessimism over UK, risk-aversion

GBP/USD licks its wounds at record low amid pessimism over UK, risk-aversion

GBP/USD consolidates intraday losses around the recently flashed record low near 1.0340, as bears fear the BOE intervention. Hawkish Fedspeak, pessimism surrounding the UK economy and broad risk-aversion add strength to the bearish bias.


AUD/USD renews two-year low as bears poke four-month-old support around 0.6500

AUD/USD renews two-year low as bears poke four-month-old support around 0.6500

AUD/USD reverses the early Asian session corrective bounce on Monday as it drops back towards 0.6500. The Aussie pair pokes the support line of a 4.5-month-old descending trend channel. May 2020 low can lure sellers on defying the bearish channel formation.


EUR/USD: Bears retain control at two-decade low

EUR/USD: Bears retain control at two-decade low

EUR/USD dropped to the lowest levels since June 2002 before recently bouncing back to 0.9660 during Monday’s Asian session. The bearish chart formation and sustained trading below the previous key support line from July, now resistance around 0.9830, keeps the pair sellers hopeful.


Gold reverses intraday losses from $1630, US Durable Goods Orders buzz

Gold reverses intraday losses from $1630, US Durable Goods Orders buzz

Gold price has recovered the major portion of losses recorded in the Tokyo session. The precious metal declined sharply to near $1630.00 but recovered firmly and is indicating a formation of buying tail, which indicates a strong resoponsive buying structure.

Gold News

LUNA Classic price hints at a 25% crash as Do Kwon under Red Notice from Interpol

LUNA Classic price hints at a 25% crash as Do Kwon under Red Notice from Interpol

LUNA Classic price reveals a bearish outlook that could unfold over the course of this week. A minor run-up seems plausible, but it is just a move to squeeze the bulls. Therefore, market participants should be ready for a quick reversal. 

Read more