The worst jobs report is even uglier, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. The US dollar could advance.
Key quotes
“The worst Nonfarm Payrolls report in history – 20.5 jobs lost and an unemployment rate of 14.7% – is shocking but investors were already bracing for disaster.”
“The participation rate had already tumbled from 63.4% to 62.7% in March and has now extended its fall to 60.2%. That means that the calculation of the unemployment rate is skewed to the upside.”
“Better estimates include the U-6 or ‘real unemployment rate’ – which had already leaped to 8.7% in March and is now 22.8% – and the broadest measure, the employment to population ratio, which stood at 60% in March and is now only 51.3%.”
“Stocks may suffer from deteriorating prospects for the US and global economies while the safe-haven US dollar has room to rise – when the US coughs, the world catches a severe sickness.”
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