Nasdaq forecast: US stocks at all-time highs, Fed dovish stance
- Nasdaq 100 hits fresh all-time highs as Nvidia leads AI-fueled momentum and bullish sentiment from expected Fed rate cuts.
- Softening trade tensions and dovish Fed signals support growth stocks, but tariff risks continue to spark intermittent volatility.
- Technical structure remains bullish above 22,750, with targets at 23,000–23,200, while breakdown below 22,600 could trigger a deeper pullback.
Over the past week, the Nasdaq‑100 surged to fresh all‑time highs, driven primarily by blockbuster gains in large-cap AI and semiconductor names—led by Nvidia, which briefly hit a ~$4 trillion market cap. Softening trade‑war headlines and hints of Fed rate cuts added to investor confidence. Still, pockets of risk remain as tariff threats from the US ricochet through global markets, causing sentiment whipsaws.
Key market drivers
- Nvidia’s $4T milestone & tech leadership: Nvidia’s 1.8% rally pushed its valuation to nearly $4 trillion, rekindling euphoria across its AI peers. Broader tech names—Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon—also participated in the rally as Nasdaq hit record intraday and closing levels
- Trade‑war volatility: Announcements of new tariffs—ranging from broad trade threats to a specific 50% levy on Brazil—have induced episodic risk-off moods, impacting cyclical sectors and occasionally clipping tech indices.
- Fed monetary policy outlook: June Fed minutes revealed a division among policymakers, with some members signaling delays on rate cuts but overall tone remained cautiously dovish—boosting sentiment across growth stocks.
Technical outlook
After a surged above the 50% of the range or the equilibrium, Nasdaq has reached new record highs at 22,930 level, showing signs of sustained strength over the past weeks.
Bullish scenario
A sustained break above 22,930 could pave the way for Nasdaq to reach new highs, especially if Nvidia and other AI/semiconductor names extend leadership. Nasdaq will remain intact as long as:
- Price stays above 22,750 Equilibrium level.
- Gets sustained follow-through above All-Time Highs.
- Wednesday’s move does not get invalidated.
Targets:
- 23,000 - Psych Level
Bearish scenario
Failure at record highs leads to pullback testing 22,700–22,750. If this level breaks, expect deeper retracement toward 22,500. Cracks would continue to show if:
- Price breaks down and closes below 22,750.
- Ultimately, a test of 22,600 could pose risks for downside.
Targets:
- 22,700 - Below equilibrium.
- 22,600 - Bottom range.
Author
Jasper Osita
Independent Analyst
Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis, trading Smart Money Concepts (SMC) with fundamentals in mind.
